Cars and Global Warming: Policy Options To Reduce Arizona’s Global Warming Pollution From Cars And Light Trucks

Executive Summary

Arizona could limit its contribution to global warming over the next two decades by implementing policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from cars and light trucks.

Global warming poses a serious threat to Arizona’s future. Scientists project that average temperatures in Arizona could increase by 2° to 9° F over the next century if no action is taken to reduce global warming pollution. Warmer temperatures in Arizona could shrink fresh water supplies, cause increased deaths from air pollution and heat, spread mosquito-borne illnesses, and impact Arizona’s economy, public health and environment in a host of other ways.

Controlling global warming pollution from the transportation sector—and particularly cars and light trucks—is essential if Arizona is to begin to reduce its emissions and its long-term impact on the climate.

Transportation-related emissions are responsible for approximately 39 percent of Arizona’s global warming pollution. Cars and light trucks—such as pickups, minivans and SUVs—are the most important sources of global warming pollution within the transportation sector, responsible for approximately 60 percent of all emissions from transportation and more than one-fifth of Arizona’s total emissions of global warming pollution.

Carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks in Arizona could double from 1990 to 2020 unless action is taken to reduce emissions.

• Emissions already have increased by nearly 40 percent from 1990 to 2000 and are projected to rise by an additional 59 percent from 2000 to 2020.

• The stagnation in federal corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for cars and light trucks, the recent shift toward greater use of less fuel-efficient SUVs, and increasing vehicle travel have put Arizona on a course toward dramatically increased emissions of carbon dioxide from transportation over the next two decades.

Arizona can significantly reduce carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks by adopting the Clean Cars Program.

• The Clean Cars Program establishes limits on health-damaging pollution and global warming pollution from automobiles. It will pave the way for the widespread introduction of technologies like hybrid-electric and fuelcell vehicles, direct-injection engines, advanced transmissions, improved air conditioning systems, and other technologies with the potential to reduce pollution. The program is made up of the Low Emission Vehicle II and Zero Emission Vehicle (LEV II/ZEV) standards for health-damaging pollution and standards for global warming pollution.

• By implementing the program to take effect in model year 2011 (calendar year 2010), Arizona could reduce carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks by about 14 percent below projected levels by 2020. (See Figure ES-1.)

• Once the program is fully implemented in 2016, consumers are projected to save at least $3 to $7 every month as a result of the standards— and more if gasoline prices remain high.

• Even with implementation of both components of the Clean Cars Program, carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks in 2020 would remain 37 percent higher than in 2000 because of a large projected increase in vehicle travel. Thus, Arizona will need to adopt additional policies to stabilize and reduce emissions from the transportation sector.

Arizona should move quickly to adopt policies that will stabilize and ultimately reduce carbon dioxide pollution from cars and light trucks.

• Arizona should adopt the Clean Cars Program so that it takes effect in model year 2011.

• Arizona should adopt additional programs— such as clean car incentives that encourage individuals and fleets to purchase vehicles with lower global warming emissions, policies that reduce vehicle travel, transit improvements and other measures—that reduce global warming pollution from the transportation sector.